Zuschrift zum Geheimdienst

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Geheimdienst-Bild aus Afghanistan: Taliban-Stützpunkt.

Die Redaktion dankt einem aufmerksamen Schweizer Leser, der uns den Text eines britischen Geheimdienst-Kenners zusendet. Es geht um das grundlegende Problem, das wir gestern im BISS-Beitrag: “Wem noch vertrauen?” anhand der afghanischen Tragödie ansprachen:

  • Versagten die Geheimdienste vor Ort?
  • Oder wollten, wie so oft, die politischen Instanzen in Washington die traurige Wahrheit nicht zur Kenntnis nehmen?

Nach Gesprächen mit Kennern der Materie fügten wir an: “Die Agenten in Afghanistan hätten den Zerfall der Ghani-Armee sehr wohl erkannt; jedoch habe ihr Befund dem Präsidenten Biden, der Vizepräsidentin Harris und dem Aussenminister Blinken nicht ins Konzept gepasst.”

Für alle, die sich der Bedeutung der Geheimdienste bewusst sind, die womöglich einen der vielen Vorträge von Divisionär Peter Regli gehört haben, der seine Gedanken zu Recht mit der Aussage einleitete: “Der Nachrichtendienst ist die erste Frontlinie der Verteidigung.” Lesen und urteilen Sie selbst:

“”One of the problems the intelligence community faces is the almost complete focus on the “morning brief.”  Since careers are determined by that briefing, there is professional tendency to ensure it goes well and that nothing that will harm its atmosphere gets presented. Equally damaging is the mindset it creates. If it is not appropriate for the morning, it is not worth deeper attention.  That has created an intelligence community that functions like a children’s soccer team – focused entirely on the ball’s current location. The rest of the field is ignored until the ball moves there.

Moreover, America’s cultural tendency to rose-color assessments to please the leadership and public leads to illusionary assessments that feed into delusional decisions.  As one Intelligence Specialist Chief once told me, honest field reports tend to be ugly, smelly and detailed.  Each step in the reporting chain, molds it ostensibly to incorporate context so it fits into the “big picture.”

More often, the field report is treated like a manure statute.  The chop chain dresses it up and pours perfume on it to make it into the image of rose. that pleases the powers that be.  It is still manure but its true nature and content is hidden from view.  The recipient is happy, rewards the delivery person and convinces themselves they have received something beautiful and true.  It’s an illusion and any decisions of art based on it are delusional, yet everyone is happy until someone grips the rose and discovers it is not a rose at all, but dried manure dressed up as a rose.

An epic description of what led us to our current state in Afghanistan. The withdrawal has forced us to grasp the rose and we don’t like what we are holding in our hand.  Although our military leaders had a hand in it, this was not purely a military failure. Rather, it was one of misguided and dishonestly presence policy, politics and personal self-service by those we put in charge.  Will they be held accountable? Will they pay a price for it?  Looking at the Vietnam, Iraq liberation and Libya disasters, I doubt it.”

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